downward should be called "negative". . Even when the prior probability changes, the differential pressure of the two conditional probabilities always slides the probability in the same direction. . You may also enjoy the Twelve Virtues of Rationality and The Simple Truth. If it is not, feel free to skip this paragraph and read the one where we describe how we differ from similar companies. Bayes' Theorem shows that falsification is very strong evidence compared to confirmation, but falsification is still probabilistic in nature; it is not governed by fundamentally different rules from confirmation, as Popper argued. In the first barrel, 30 of the eggs with pearls are painted blue, and 10 of the empty eggs are painted blue. . P(AX) p(XA p(A) p(XA p(A) p(XA p(A) We'll start with p(AX). . Showing a fresh point of view on an old topic. Bayes' Theorem for the curious and bewildered; an excruciatingly gentle introduction.
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